With consumers struggling on a number of fronts – from housing, rising fuel and food prices, sentiment is at a low. Now there is a danger that this negativity doesn’t just reflect reality: it can start to shape it as mood translates into mindset, and mindset translates into measurable economic behaviour, writes Geoff Tucker of REDC Research.
When large numbers of consumers simultaneously pull back on spending, it can slow economic activity more broadly. That, in turn, reinforces the very pessimism that drove the behaviour in the first place. In other words, negative sentiment doesn’t just reflect reality: it can start to shape it.
This is one of the defining risks in the current environment: mood translating into mindset, and mindset translating into measurable economic behaviour.
Taking a quick snapshot of Irish consumer sentiment right now, it doesn’t exactly paint a pretty picture. The most recent wave of RED C’s Consumer Mood Monitor shows expectations for the economy firmly in negative territory, with an overwhelming majority of 86% expecting the Irish economy to get worse over the coming six months.
But the current mood isn’t simply a reaction to recent events. It reflects something deeper and that has been building over time: a consumer that has been navigating disruption after disruption, and is now starting to expect that uncertainty as the norm.
In many ways, the Irish consumer has been riding a wave of disruption for the better part of a decade. Brexit kicked things off, introducing uncertainty into trade and the broader economic outlook, along with how the border with Northern Ireland would be managed and what very quickly turned into a much more fractious relationship with our UK neighbours. That was soon followed by COVID-19, which upended daily life and livelihoods. No sooner had the recovery from the pandemic begun than the cost-of-living crisis took hold, driven by energy shocks linked to the war in Ukraine. And more recently over the past year, we have seen protectionist moves from the US and renewed geopolitical tension, including conflict involving Iran, pushing fuel prices back into focus.
What’s different now is the sense that this isn’t a cycle that will quickly pass. Over the past 12–18 months in particular, the global backdrop has started to feel more unstable, more confrontational and crucially more permanent. That shift matters, because it shapes how consumers think about the future.
A strong economy, but a different consumer reality
And that’s where things get interesting. Because, on paper at least, Ireland is doing pretty well. Employment has grown strongly in recent years (over one-quarter of a million new jobs have been created in the economy over the last three years), and while unemployment has ticked up slightly of late (currently running at 4.8%), it still points to an economy operating at full capacity. This would suggest that, on the face of it, things are generally “okay” for many households. Not exactly booming, perhaps, but stable.
But the consumer mood is driven by how people feel about their situation and increasingly, that feeling is one of both pressure and concern.
Take housing. Despite some signs of increased supply, affordability remains a major issue and a constant source of anxiety. Or take the broader cost of living. Even where incomes are holding up, many people feel like they’re running harder just to stand still. Layer onto that a perception that progress by the government on housing and cost-of-living (along with other key policy issues) has been slow, and that policymakers may be somewhat out of sync with everyday realities, and it’s not hard to see why frustration is building.
The recent fuel protests at the beginning of April (around the same time we did fieldwork for the current wave of the Consumer Mood Monitor) capture this mood well. Rising fuel prices may have been the spark, but the reaction suggests something deeper at play. A sense of accumulated pressure finally finding an outlet. For some, it may well represent a tipping point.
So, while the economy might be in “good nick” by traditional measures, consumers themselves are far less convinced about where things are heading. And that forward-looking anxiety is critical.
At the heart of the current mood is a simple expectation: things are likely to get harder before they get easier. Most consumers anticipate rising costs across essentials like fuel, energy and groceries. At the same time, many expect the amount of money they have left over at the end of the month (their discretionary disposable income) to shrink.
And this is where behaviour begins to shift.
The risk of a self-fulfilling cycle
When consumers expect pressure, they don’t wait for it to arrive. They start adjusting ahead of time. Spending becomes more considered. Nice-to-haves are re-evaluated. Big purchases are delayed. Nights out become less frequent. Holidays get scaled back.
We are already seeing clear signs of this mindset taking hold. A clear example of this is in the airline sector, where consumers are showing greater hesitation about booking travel for later in the year, not just because of cost considerations, but due to concerns that disruption to fuel supply could lead to cancelled or altered flights.
What’s important to recognise is that this isn’t just a reaction, it can in fact become a feedback loop. When large numbers of consumers simultaneously pull back on spending, it can slow economic activity more broadly. That, in turn, reinforces the very pessimism that drove the behaviour in the first place. In other words, negative sentiment doesn’t just reflect reality: it can start to shape it.
This is one of the defining risks in the current environment: mood translating into mindset, and mindset translating into measurable economic behaviour.
What does this all mean for brands?
For businesses and brands, this shift is significant. When consumers feel confident, growth is often driven by getting people to spend more, whether that’s through new ideas, appealing to wants rather than needs, or encouraging them to trade up to more premium options. But in the current environment, those levers are less reliable. Consumers are more cautious, more selective, and more focused on getting real value from what they spend. That doesn’t just mean “cheaper”. It means clearer justification. Why this product? Why this brand? Why now?
The brands that resonate in this context tend to be the ones that make those answers easy. They demonstrate usefulness and show fairness. They communicate openly, especially on pricing. And perhaps most importantly, they provide a sense of reliability in an otherwise uncertain environment. Importantly, these are not new behaviours in response to the current mood. If anything, the brands performing strongest today are those that have been consistently operating in this way for some time; they were already aligned with a more cautious, considered consumer mindset.
There’s also a role here for empathy. Consumers know the broader environment is challenging, but they want to feel that brands understand their reality, not just talk at them.
We can see this playing out across sectors. In financial services, there is a greater emphasis on helping customers feel more informed and in control of their decisions. In energy, where cost pressures are highly visible, there is a clear need to simplify pricing and make savings easier to understand. In the car market, propositions built around accessibility, reliability and straightforward value help consumers justify larger, more considered purchases. And in everyday discretionary spend, whether that is eating out or grabbing a take-
away or small retail purchases, things like familiarity, consistency and knowing what you’ll get for your money reduce the perceived risk of spending at all.
A new phase for the Irish consumer
Looking ahead, there’s little to suggest a meaningful shift in sentiment in the near term. Many of the pressures weighing on consumers, particularly housing and the cost of living, are structural and will take time to resolve. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and global economic tensions continue to add to the sense of instability.
But more importantly, this isn’t about what happens next. It’s about recognising where we already are. A prolonged period of disruption has reshaped how consumers think, feel and behave. Caution is no longer a reaction to events; it is embedded in everyday decision-making.
The implication is not that consumers will stop spending altogether, but that spending will continue to be more deliberate, more considered and more heavily scrutinised. Every decision, large or small, carries more weight. For marketers and business leaders, the task is not to wait for confidence to return, but to operate effectively within this reality. That means recognising that consumer behaviour has already adjusted, and ensuring that brand strategies are aligned with that more cautious, value-conscious mindset.
It’s less about capturing short-term spikes in demand and more about building something that lasts, through strong emotional connections that give consumers confidence in their choices. Less about encouraging consumers to spend more, and more about recognising that they are already in a more cautious, considered mode, which means brands need to make a much clearer case for why they deserve to be chosen. And above all, it’s about understanding that in a world where uncertainty feels constant, brands that create genuine emotional connection, through relevance, empathy and reassurance, are the ones that will endure.
