Following a difficult 2020, advertising spend across all media formats is forecast to rise by 8% next year to €1.3bn, according to the IPG-owned MAGNA.
Digital, OOH and TV, in particular, are expected to register the biggest increases in investment, according to MAGNA in its latest report which monitors 16 markets in Europe including, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Switzerland, Austria, France, Germany, Ireland, Belgium, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.
“Digital media was relatively immune, with ad sales stable at €770m (or 63% of total advertising revenues), growth of +3% over 2019. Video and social were the most resilient formats, both increasing by +8% to reach a combined total of 360 million euros, around 45% of total digital ad sales. Search was stable (+2%). We expect digital spend to accelerate in 2021, growing +11% to reach €860m,” the report notes.
TV advertising is expected to rise by 5% in 2021, according to MAGNA.
“Television ad sales saw substantial declines in the first half (-20% overall, up to -40% in the second quarter alone), with many major advertisers cancelling or deferring their budgets,” it notes.
“The lack of major sporting events—including the UEFA tournament and the Olympics, which have both been pushed to 2021—also serve as an inhibitor. For the full year, net television ad sales eroded -18%, dropping from €210m in 2019 to €170m. In 2021 television ad sales are forecast to grow by +5%, supported by the broader economic recovery (real GDP: +4.9%) and the return of sporting events, particularly the UEFA European Championship. Pricing is also expected to recover, with CPM inflation of +12% for a 30’ primetime free TV spot and +14% for pay TV.”
While OOH suffered in 2020 due to various lockdowns and travel restrictions, Out-of-home media suffered the most significant declines in the first half, with static OOH revenues down -30%. With the second lockdown leading to a dramatic reduction in mobility this fall (transit: -70%, walking -60%, driving -50%, according to Apple Mobility trends), OOH formats have not had much chance to recover. In Ireland, unlike many other Western European countries, walking and transit mobility remained generally below the baseline throughout the summer, despite the easing of Covid restrictions. For the full year, OOH ad revenues were down -35%.
Print (-32%) and radio (-19%) advertising sales are also down significantly. Data from RTÉ shows that the number of people listening to radio news shows has increased substantially during the pandemic. Morning Ireland, for example, is now the top radio program in Ireland with nearly half a million people tuning in every morning, a year-over-year increase of over 60,000. Despite the surge in listenership, demand remained weak from key categories like auto, retail and finance.